Rainey Street Ripper a Myth?

New report dismantles viral rumors about serial killer in Austin

Social media hype fueled panic over a serial killer that didn't exist.

Before we get into more detail in the actual report, let’s review Different Drummer’s past skepticism: Different Drummer and her fellow Cycling Sleuth are still skeptical despite headlines such as the one that appeared in the Austin Chronical on Sept. 2, 2025:

Part of the problem involves the cutoff dates used in the study.  The new study involved 22 years while the body count has increased drastically in the last 3 years.  By using a longer period of time, the average deaths obscure the more recent uptick in deaths.  And buried in the report is the fact that of the recent deaths, “about half a dozen called “unknown.” This link below features facts, interviews, and family members who are not content with the Austin Police Department’s dismissive views on the drownings.

A Petition Calls Out the Austin Police and City Officials

The petition refers to “a miscarriage of Justice,” hinting that there is something “darker at play” here, and accuses officials of treating the victims’ families “callously and without empathy.”    

“Data obtained by FOX 7 Austin shows that at least 38 bodies have been found in or around Lady Bird Lake since 2022.

Of those, 30 were male, and just over 60 percent were between 30 and 49 years old.

Only two were teenagers, including the body found on Tuesday.

 In the past three years, the causes of death have been mainly attributed to accidental drownings. Second is suicide, as well as drug overdoses, and natural causes. Only one case has been ruled a murder.

 About half a dozen of these cases remain unknown. 

Here are a few more past gripes from Different Drummer:

July 12, 2023

Maybe I am wrong to call Austin’s police and press incurious.  Perhaps they are just holding information close to their chests about this 5th – that’s right 5th body found in Lady Bird Lake right here in Austin Texas in the last 6 months.  That is almost one per month.  Not to mention 10 deaths in the last 12 months.

The Austin Police Department (APD) released the identity of the person found dead on West Cesar Chavez Street near Lady Bird Lake on Tuesday afternoon.

APD said at 11:49 a.m. Tuesday, June 27th, 2023, that officers were on the scene in the 1000 block of West Cesar Chavez, where they found Mogga Dogale in the water dead.

And maybe the fact that all the deaths were men aged 30 to 45 is just a coincidence, the only common factor being that in most cases the cause of death has been “drowning” with the mantra of “no evidence of foul play” as well as the repeated “combination of alcohol and easy access to Lady Bird Lake.”

Whether or not the autopsies could reveal alcohol levels after the bodies being in the water that long was not disclosed.

And perhaps we should not be upset that the officer talking spent over half the time telling us that the K in Austin Police Sergeant Lee Knouse’s name is silent.  Or that Officer Knouse  himself (maybe we should just call him Silent K from now on) spent considerable time giving the public water safety tips, “such as wearing personal flotation devices” when boating.

Maybe they should pass floaties out at the Rainey Street bars or those on Sixth street.  What do you think?

Does this have anything to do with the fact that Austin is now a destination city for Bachelor and Bachelorette parties, not to mention weddings?  A serial killer strolling the streets is not going to help the tourist trade, is it?

Let us hope that the police know considerably more than they are now disclosing and are keeping details from the public in order to pursue the case more efficiently.

***

The New Report

 September 2025 study debunks serial killer(s) reports in Austin Texas, calling it an “urban myth.”  The study, conducted by Texas State University in San Marcos and the Austin Police Department, attributed the deaths to population growth, the Texas climate, and easy access to water recreation:

"The number of drownings in Austin is a function of population, Lady Bird Lake visitation, and the proliferation of nearby bars and nightclubs. While the shores of the Colorado River are not being stalked by a serial killer, the hazards of drowning in Texas remain a concern," researchers wrote.

"A misplaced focus on the sensational narrative of a predator – at the expense of rational discussion of causal factors and prevention strategies – is not helpful. Rather, a problem-oriented policing approach involving all stakeholders – local and state governments, public safety agencies, and Downtown businesses – would be a useful response to these accidents."

“Within that 189-case pool, researchers noted 58 target cases that coincided with the "victimology of the alleged 'Rainey Street Ripper.'" The report's conclusion revealed neither direct evidence or indirect warning signs and concerns of a serial murderer targeting the Texas capital, with the drowning incidents in Austin in tandem with "historical patterns, average drowning risk in Texas, and population growth. 

"No evidence of foul play has been discovered and investigators determined these drownings were not crimes," the report read. The Travis County Medical Examiner's Office's autopsy reports revealed the bulk of drownings involved intoxicated people who ultimately died after falling into the water.

 Looking at a statewide scale, researchers reviewed nearly 8,000 unintentional drownings in Texas across 22 years, which broke down to an annual average of 352 drownings. Among those state-level cases, 78% involved men, mainly between the ages of 22 and 44, and the report noted Texas' climate offers more around-the-clock access to water recreation and potential drowning incidents.

While dubbed the Rainey Street Ripper, researchers analyzed where Austin drowning victims were recovered and found the bulk of bodies were located closer to Auditorium Shores and Barton Creek as opposed to the Rainey Street District (eight target victims, of 58 analyzed, between 2004 and 2025 were found between Congress Avenue and Interstate 35).

Texas State's report reviewed similar rumors of serial killers who drowned their victims, including the Smiley Face murderer, the Manchester Pusher and the New England serial killer. Each of those were "debunked as urban myths," the report said, adding all of them included alcohol presence in victims as well as bars located near waterways.”

Several responded with the cynicism Different Drummer has:

“You know how many people drowned in Town Lake between 1994 and 2004? None! How much did they pay you to do this "study"? You should be ashamed of yourself. 189 families have lost loved ones. Not many were legitimate drownings.”

 "The study is meant to debunk" ... So the study is already completely biased before it starts. That sounds exactly like 2020's scientific study.

“Lol it's definitely not murder! "But half a dozen of these cases remain unknown. " seems like a funny way to put it.

What do you think?